An Invitation to Washington
Three and a half weeks ago I got an email asking me if I’d testify at a hearing of the US Senate Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, Innovation and the Internet. Given that the title of the hearing was “Optimizing for Engagement: Understanding the Use of Persuasive Technology on Internet Platforms” I wasn’t sure why I’d be relevant.
But then the email went on: “The hearing is intended to examine, among other things, whether algorithmic transparency or algorithmic explanation are policy options Congress should be considering.” That piqued my interest, because, yes, I have thought about “algorithmic transparency” and “algorithmic explanation”, and their implications for the deployment of artificial intelligence.
Generally I stay far away from anything to do with politics. But figuring out how the world should interact with AI is really important. So I decided that—even though it was logistically a bit difficult—I should do my civic duty and go to Washington and testify.
Optimizing for Engagement: Understanding the Use of Persuasive Technology on Internet Platforms »
Understanding the Issues
So what was the hearing really about? For me, it was in large measure an early example of reaction to the realization that, yes, AIs are starting to run the world. Billions of people are being fed content that is basically selected for them by AIs, and there are mounting concerns about this, as reported almost every day in the media.
Are the AIs cleverly hacking us humans to get us to behave in a certain way? What kind of biases do the AIs have, relative to what the world is like, or what we think the world should be like? What are the AIs optimizing for, anyway? And when are there actually “humans behind the curtain”, controlling in detail what the AIs are doing?
It doesn’t help that in some sense the AIs are getting much more free rein than they might because the people who use them aren’t really their customers. I have to say that back when the internet was young, I personally never thought it would work this way, but in today’s world many of the most successful businesses on the internet—including Google, Facebook, YouTube and Twitter—make their revenue not from their users, but instead from advertisers who are going through them to reach their users.
All these business also have in common that they are fundamentally what one can call “automated content selection businesses”: they work by getting large amounts of content that they didn’t themselves generate, then using what amounts to AI to automatically select what content to deliver or to suggest to any particular user at any given time—based on data that they’ve captured about that user. Part of what’s happening is presumably optimized to give a good experience to their users (whatever that might mean), but part of it is also optimized to get revenue from the actual customers, i.e. advertisers. And there’s also an increasing suspicion that somehow the AI is biased in what it’s doing—maybe because someone explicitly made it be, or because it somehow evolved that way.
“Open Up the AI”?
So why not just “open up the AI” and see what it’s doing inside? Well, that’s what the algorithmic transparency idea mentioned in the invitation to the hearing is about.
And the problem is that, no, that can’t work. If we want to seriously use the power of computation—and AI—then inevitably there won’t be a “human-explainable” story about what’s happening inside.
So, OK, if you can’t check what’s happening inside the AI, what about putting constraints on what the AI does? Well, to do that, you have to say what you want. What rule for balance between opposing kinds of views do you want? How much do you allow people to be unsettled by what they see? And so on.
And there are two problems here: first, what to want, and, second, how to describe it. In the past, the only way we could imagine describing things like this was with traditional legal rules, written in legalese. But if we want AIs to automatically follow these rules, perhaps billions of times a second, that’s not good enough: instead, we need something that AIs can intrinsically understand.
And at least on this point I think we’re making good progress. Because—thanks to our 30+ years of work on Wolfram Language—we’re now beginning to have a computational language that has the scope to formulate “computational contracts” that can specify relevant kinds of constraints in computational terms, in a form that humans can write and understand, and that machines can automatically interpret.
But even though we’re beginning to have the tools, there’s still the huge question of what the “computational laws” for automatic content selection AIs will be.
A lot of the hearing ultimately revolved around Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act—which specifies what kinds of content companies can choose to block without losing their status as “neutral platforms”. There’s a list of fairly uncontroversially blockable kinds of content. But then the sentence ends with “or otherwise objectionable [content]”. What does this mean? Does it mean content that espouses objectionable points of view? Whose definition of “objectionable”? Etc.
Well, one day things like Section 230 will, of necessity, not be legalese laws, but computational laws. There’ll be some piece of computational language that specifies for example that this-or-that machine learning classifier trained on this-or-that sample of the internet will be used to define this or that.
We’re not there yet, however. We’re only just beginning to be able to set up computational contracts for much simpler things, like business situations. And—somewhat fueled by blockchain—I expect that this will accelerate in the years to come. But it’s going to be a while before the US Senate is routinely debating lines of code in computational laws.
So, OK, what can be done now?
A Possible Path Forward?
A little more than a week ago, what I’d figured out was basically what I’ve already described here. But that meant I was looking at going to the hearing and basically saying only negative things. “Sorry, this won’t work. You can’t do that. The science says it’s impossible. The solution is years in the future.” Etc.
And, as someone who prides himself on turning the seemingly impossible into the possible, this didn’t sit well with me. So I decided I’d better try to figure out if I could actually see a pragmatic, near-term path forward. At first, I tried thinking about purely technological solutions. But soon I basically convinced myself that no such solution was going to work.
So, with some reticence, I decided I’d better start thinking about other kinds of solutions. Fortunately there are quite a few people at my company and in my circle who I could talk to about this—although I soon discovered they often had strongly conflicting views. But after a little while, a glimmer of an idea emerged.
Why does every aspect of automated content selection have to be done by a single business? Why not open up the pipeline, and create a market in which users can make choices for themselves?
One of the constraints I imposed on myself is that my solution couldn’t detract from the impressive engineering and monetization of current automated content selection businesses. But I came up with at least two potential ways to open things up that I think could still perfectly well satisfy this constraint.
One of my ideas involved introducing what I call “final ranking providers”: third parties who take pre-digested feature vectors from the underlying content platform, then use these to do the final ranking of items in whatever way they want. My other ideas involved introducing “constraint providers”: third parties who provide constraints in the form of computational contracts that are inserted into the machine learning loop of the automated content selection system.
The important feature of both these solutions is that users don’t have to trust the single AI of the automated content selection business. They can in effect pick their own brand of AI—provided by a third party they trust—to determine what content they’ll actually be given.
Who would these third-party providers be? They might be existing media organizations, or nonprofits, or startups. Or they might be something completely new. They’d have to have some technical sophistication. But fundamentally what they’d have to do is to define—or represent—brands that users would trust to decide what the final list of items in their news feed, or video recommendations, or search results, or whatever, might be.
Social networks get their usefulness by being monolithic: by having “everyone” connected into them. But the point is that the network can prosper as a monolithic thing, but there doesn’t need to be just one monolithic AI that selects content for all the users on the network. Instead, there can be a whole market of AIs, that users can freely pick between.
And here’s another important thing: right now there’s no consistent market pressure on the final details of how content is selected for users, not least because users aren’t the final customers. (Indeed, pretty much the only pressure right now comes from PR eruptions and incidents.) But if the ecosystem changes, and there are third parties whose sole purpose is to serve users, and to deliver the final content they want, then there’ll start to be real market forces that drive innovation—and potentially add more value.
Could It Work?
AI provides powerful ways to automate the doing of things. But AIs on their own can’t ultimately decide what they want to do. That has to come from outside—from humans defining goals. But at a practical level, where should those goals be set? Should they just come—monolithically—from an automated content selection business? Or should users have more freedom, and more choice?
One might say: “Why not let every user set everything for themselves?”. Well, the problem with that is that automated content selection is a complicated matter. And—much as I hope that there’ll soon be very widespread computational language literacy—I don’t think it’s realistic that everyone will be able to set up everything in detail for themselves. So instead, I think the better idea is to have discrete third-party providers, who set things up in a way that appeals to some particular group of users.
Then standard market forces can come into play. No doubt the result would even be a greater level of overall success for the delivery of content to users who want it (and monetize it). But this market approach also solves some other problems associated with the “single point of failure” monolithic AI.
For example, with the monolithic AI, if someone figures out how to spread some kind of bad content, it’ll spread everywhere. With third-party providers, there’s a good chance it’ll only spread through some of them.
Right now there’s lots of unhappiness about people simply being “banned” from particular content platforms. But with the market of third-party providers, banning is not an all-or-nothing proposition anymore: some providers could ban someone, but others might not.
OK, but are there “fatal flaws” with my idea? People could object that it’s technically difficult to do. I don’t know the state of the codebases inside the major automated content selection businesses. But I’m certain that with manageable effort, appropriate APIs etc. could be set up. (And it might even help these businesses by forcing some code cleanup and modernization.)
Another issue might be: how will the third-party providers be incentivized? I can imagine some organizations just being third-party providers as a public service. But in other cases they’d have to be paid a commission by the underlying content platform. The theory, though, is that good work by third-party content providers would expand the whole market, and make them “worth their commission”. Plus, of course, the underlying content platforms could save a lot by not having to deal with all those complaints and issues they’re currently getting.
What if there’s a third-party provider that upranks content some people don’t like? That will undoubtedly happen. But the point is that this is a market—so market dynamics can operate.
Another objection is that my idea makes even worse the tendency with modern technology for people to live inside “content bubbles” where they never broaden their points of view. Well, of course, there can be providers who offer broader content. But people could choose “content bubbles” providers. The good thing, though, is that they’re choosing them, and they know they’re doing that, just like they know they’re choosing to watch one television channel and not another.
Of course it’s important for the operation of society that people have some level of shared values. But what should those shared values be, and who should decide them? In a totalitarian system, it’s basically the government. Right now, with the current monolithic state of automated content selection, one could argue it’s the automated content selection businesses.
If I were running one of those businesses, I’d certainly not want to get set up as the moral arbiter for the world; it seems like a no-win role. With the third-party providers idea, there’s a way out, without damaging the viability of the business. Yes, users get more control, as arguably they should have, given that they are the fuel that makes the business work. But the core business model is still perfectly intact. And there’s a new market that opens up, for third-party providers, potentially delivering all sorts of new economic value.
What Should I Do?
At the beginning of last weekend, what I just described was basically the state of my thinking. But what should I do with it? Was there some issue I hadn’t noticed? Was I falling into some political or business trap? I wasn’t sure. But it seemed as if some idea in this area was needed, and I had an idea, so I really should tell people about it.
So I quickly wrote up the written testimony for the hearing, and sent it in by the deadline on Sunday morning. (The full text of the testimony is included at the end of this piece.)
The Hearing Itself
This morning was the hearing itself. It was in the same room as the hearing Mark Zuckerberg did last fall. The staffers were saying that they expected a good turnout of senators, and that of the 24 senators on the subcommittee (out of 100 total in the Senate), they expected about 15 to show up at some point or another.
At the beginning, staffers were putting out nameplates for the senators. I was trying to figure out what the arrangement was. And then I realized! It was a horseshoe configuration and Republican senators were on the right side of the horseshoe, Democrats were on the left. There really are right and left wings! (Yes, I obviously don’t watch C-SPAN enough, or I’d already know that.)
When the four of us on the panel were getting situated, one of the senators (Marsha Blackburn [R-TN]) wandered up, and started talking about computational irreducibility. Wow, I thought, this is going to be interesting. That’s a pretty abstruse science concept to be finding its way into the Senate.
Everyone had five minutes to give opening remarks, and everyone had a little countdown timer in front of them. I talked a bit about the science and technology of AI and explainability. I mentioned computational contracts and the concept of an AI Constitution. Then I said I didn’t want to just explain that everything was impossible—and gave a brief summary of my ideas for solutions. Rather uncharacteristically for me, I ended a full minute before my time was up.
The format for statements and questions was five minutes per senator. The issues raised were quite diverse. I quickly realized, though, that it was unfortunate that I really had three different things I was talking about (non-explainability, computational laws, and my ideas for a near-term solution). In retrospect perhaps I should have concentrated on the near-term solution, but it felt odd to be emphasizing something I just thought of last week, rather than something I’ve thought about for many years.
Still, it was fascinating—and a sign of things to come—to see serious issues about what amounts to the philosophy of computation being discussed in the Senate. To be fair, I had done a small hearing at the Senate back in 2003 (my only other such experience) about the ideas in A New Kind of Science. But then it had been very much on the “science track”; now the whole discussion was decidedly mainstream.
I couldn’t help thinking that I was witnessing the concept of computation beginning to come of age. What used to be esoteric issues in the theory of computation were now starting to be things that senators were discussing writing laws about. One of the senators mentioned atomic energy, and compared it to AI. But really, AI is going to be something much more central to the whole future of our species.
It enables us to do so much. But yet it forces us to confront what we want to do, and who we want to be. Today it’s rare and exotic for the Senate to be discussing issues of AI. In time I suspect AI and its many consequences will be a dominant theme in many Senate discussions. This is just the beginning.
I wish we were ready to really start creating an AI Constitution. But we’re not (and it doesn’t help that we don’t have an AI analog of the few thousand years of human political history that were available as a guide when the US Constitution was drafted). Still, issue by issue I suspect we’ll move closer to the point where having a coherent AI Constitution becomes a necessity. No doubt there’ll be different ones in different communities and different countries. But one day a group like the one I saw today—with all the diverse and sometimes colorful characters involved—will end up having to figure out just how we humans interact with AI and the computational world.
The Written Testimony
Automated content selection by internet businesses has become progressively more contentious—leading to calls to make it more transparent or constrained. I explain some of the complex intellectual and scientific problems involved, then offer two possible technical and market suggestions for paths forward. Both are based on giving users a choice about who to trust for the final content they see—in one case introducing what I call “final ranking providers”, and in the other case what I call “constraint providers”.
The Nature of the Problem
There are many kinds of businesses that operate on the internet, but some of the largest and most successful are what one can call automated content selection businesses. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google are all examples. All of them deliver content that others have created, but a key part of their value is associated with their ability to (largely) automatically select what content they should serve to a given user at a given time—whether in news feeds, recommendations, web search results, or advertisements.
What criteria are used to determine content selection? Part of the story is certainly to provide good service to users. But the paying customers for these businesses are not the users, but advertisers, and necessarily a key objective of these businesses must be to maximize advertising income. Increasingly, there are concerns that this objective may have unacceptable consequences in terms of content selection for users. And in addition there are concerns that—through their content selection—the companies involved may be exerting unreasonable influence in other kinds of business (such as news delivery), or in areas such as politics.
Methods for content selection—using machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc.—have become increasingly sophisticated in recent years. A significant part of their effectiveness—and economic success—comes from their ability to use extensive data about users and their previous activities. But there has been increasing dissatisfaction and, in some cases, suspicion about just what is going on inside the content selection process.
This has led to a desire to make content selection more transparent, and perhaps to constrain aspects of how it works. As I will explain, these are not easy things to achieve in a useful way. And in fact, they run into deep intellectual and scientific issues, that are in some ways a foretaste of problems we will encounter ever more broadly as artificial intelligence becomes more central to the things we do. Satisfactory ultimate solutions will be difficult to develop, but I will suggest here two near-term practical approaches that I believe significantly address current concerns.
How Automated Content Selection Works
Whether one’s dealing with videos, posts, webpages, news items or, for that matter, ads, the underlying problem of automated content selection (ACS) is basically always the same. There are many content items available (perhaps even billions of them), and somehow one has to quickly decide which ones are “best” to show to a given user at a given time. There’s no fundamental principle to say what “best” means, but operationally it’s usually in the end defined in terms of what maximizes user clicks, or revenue from clicks.
The major innovation that has made modern ACS systems possible is the idea of automatically extrapolating from large numbers of examples. The techniques have evolved, but the basic idea is to effectively deduce a model of the examples and then to use this model to make predictions, for example about what ranking of items will be best for a given user.
Because it will be relevant for the suggestions I’m going to make later, let me explain here a little more about how most current ACS systems work in practice. The starting point is normally to extract a collection of perhaps hundreds or thousands of features (or “signals”) for each item. If a human were doing it, they might use features like: “How long is the video? Is it entertainment or education? Is it happy or sad?” But these days—with the volume of data that’s involved—it’s a machine doing it, and often it’s also a machine figuring out what features to extract. Typically the machine will optimize for features that make its ultimate task easiest—whether or not (and it’s almost always not) there’s a human-understandable interpretation of what the features represent.
As an example, here are the letters of the alphabet automatically laid out by a machine in a “feature space” in which letters that “look similar” appear nearby:
How does the machine know what features to extract to determine whether things will “look similar”? A typical approach is to give it millions of images that have been tagged with what they are of (“elephant”, “teacup”, etc.). And then from seeing which images are tagged the same (even though in detail they look different), the machine is able—using the methods of modern machine learning—to identify features that could be used to determine how similar images of anything should be considered to be.
OK, so let’s imagine that instead of letters of the alphabet laid out in a 2D feature space, we’ve got a million videos laid out in a 200-dimensional feature space. If we’ve got the features right, then videos that are somehow similar should be nearby in this feature space.
But given a particular person, what videos are they likely to want to watch? Well, we can do the same kind of thing with people as with videos: we can take the data we know about each person, and extract some set of features. “Similar people” would then be nearby in “people feature space”, and so on.
But now there’s a “final ranking” problem. Given features of videos, and features of people, which videos should be ranked “best” for which people? Often in practice, there’s an initial coarse ranking. But then, as soon as we have a specific definition of “best”—or enough examples of what we mean by “best”—we can use machine learning to learn a program that will look at the features of videos and people, and will effectively see how to use them to optimize the final ranking.
The setup is a bit different in different cases, and there are many details, most of which are proprietary to particular companies. However, modern ACS systems—dealing as they do with immense amounts of data at very high speed—are a triumph of engineering, and an outstanding example of the power of artificial intelligence techniques.
Is It “Just an Algorithm”?
When one hears the term “algorithm” one tends to think of a procedure that will operate in a precise and logical way, always giving a correct answer, not influenced by human input. One also tends to think of something that consists of well-defined steps, that a human could, if needed, readily trace through.
But this is pretty far from how modern ACS systems work. They don’t deal with the same kind of precise questions (“What video should I watch next?” just isn’t something with a precise, well-defined answer). And the actual methods involved make fundamental use of machine learning, which doesn’t have the kind of well-defined structure or explainable step-by-step character that’s associated with what people traditionally think of as an “algorithm”. There’s another thing too: while traditional algorithms tend to be small and self-contained, machine learning inevitably requires large amounts of externally supplied data.
In the past, computer programs were almost exclusively written directly by humans (with some notable exceptions in my own scientific work). But the key idea of machine learning is instead to create programs automatically, by “learning the program” from large numbers of examples. The most common type of program on which to apply machine learning is a so-called neural network. Although originally inspired by the brain, neural networks are purely computational constructs that are typically defined by large arrays of numbers called weights.
Imagine you’re trying to build a program that recognizes pictures of cats versus dogs. You start with lots of specific pictures that have been identified—normally by humans—as being either of cats or dogs. Then you “train” a neural network by showing it these pictures and gradually adjusting its weights to make it give the correct identification for these pictures. But then the crucial point is that the neural network generalizes. Feed it another picture of a cat, and even if it’s never seen that picture before, it’ll still (almost certainly) say it’s a cat.
What will it do if you feed it a picture of a cat dressed as a dog? It’s not clear what the answer is supposed to be. But the neural network will still confidently give some result—that’s derived in some way from the training data it was given.
So in a case like this, how would one tell why the neural network did what it did? Well, it’s difficult. All those weights inside the network were learned automatically; no human explicitly set them up. It’s very much like the case of extracting features from images of letters above. One can use these features to tell which letters are similar, but there’s no “human explanation” (like “count the number of loops in the letter”) of what each of the features are.
Would it be possible to make an explainable cat vs. dog program? For 50 years most people thought that a problem like cat vs. dog just wasn’t the kind of thing computers would be able to do. But modern machine learning made it possible—by learning the program rather than having humans explicitly write it. And there are fundamental reasons to expect that there can’t in general be an explainable version—and that if one’s going to do the level of automated content selection that people have become used to, then one cannot expect it to be broadly explainable.
Sometimes one hears it said that automated content selection is just “being done by an algorithm”, with the implication that it’s somehow fair and unbiased, and not subject to human manipulation. As I’ve explained, what’s actually being used are machine learning methods that aren’t like traditional precise algorithms.
And a crucial point about machine learning methods is that by their nature they’re based on learning from examples. And inevitably the results they give depend on what examples were used.
And this is where things get tricky. Imagine we’re training the cat vs. dog program. But let’s say that, for whatever reason, among our examples there are spotted dogs but no spotted cats. What will the program do if it’s shown a spotted cat? It might successfully recognize the shape of the cat, but quite likely it will conclude—based on the spots—that it must be seeing a dog.
So is there any way to guarantee that there are no problems like this, that were introduced either knowingly or unknowingly? Ultimately the answer is no—because one can’t know everything about the world. Is the lack of spotted cats in the training set an error, or are there simply no spotted cats in the world?
One can do one’s best to find correct and complete training data. But one will never be able to prove that one has succeeded.
But let’s say that we want to ensure some property of our results. In almost all cases, that’ll be perfectly possible—either by modifying the training set, or the neural network. For example, if we want to make sure that spotted cats aren’t left out, we can just insist, say, that our training set has an equal number of spotted and unspotted cats. That might not be a correct representation of what’s actually true in the world, but we can still choose to train our neural network on that basis.
As a different example, let’s say we’re selecting pictures of pets. How many cats should be there, versus dogs? Should we base it on the number of cat vs. dog images on the web? Or how often people search for cats vs. dogs? Or how many cats and dogs are registered in America? There’s no ultimate “right answer”. But if we want to, we can give a constraint that says what should happen.
This isn’t really an “algorithm” in the traditional sense either—not least because it’s not about abstract things; it’s about real things in the world, like cats and dogs. But an important development (that I happen to have been personally much involved in for 30+ years) is the construction of a computational language that lets one talk about things in the world in a precise way that can immediately be run on a computer.
In the past, things like legal contracts had to be written in English (or “legalese”). Somewhat inspired by blockchain smart contracts, we are now getting to the point where we can write automatically executable computational contracts not in human language but in computational language. And if we want to define constraints on the training sets or results of automated content selection, this is how we can do it.
Issues from Basic Science
Why is it difficult to find solutions to problems associated with automated content selection? In addition to all the business, societal and political issues, there are also some deep issues of basic science involved. Here’s a list of some of those issues. The precursors of these issues date back nearly a century, though it’s only quite recently (in part through my own work) that they’ve become clarified. And although they’re not enunciated (or named) as I have here, I don’t believe any of them are at this point controversial—though to come to terms with them requires a significant shift in intuition from what exists without modern computational thinking.
Even if you don’t explicitly know something (say about someone), it can almost always be statistically deduced if there’s enough other related data available
What is a particular person’s gender identity, ethnicity, political persuasion, etc.? Even if one’s not allowed to explicitly ask these questions, it’s basically inevitable that with enough other data about the person, one will be able to deduce what the best answers must be.
Everyone is different in detail. But the point is that there are enough commonalities and correlations between people that it’s basically inevitable that with enough data, one can figure out almost any attribute of a person.
The basic mathematical methods for doing this were already known from classical statistics. But what’s made this now a reality is the availability of vastly more data about people in digital form—as well as the ability of modern machine learning to readily work not just with numerical data, but also with things like textual and image data.
What is the consequence of ubiquitous data deducibility? It means that it’s not useful to block particular pieces of data—say in an attempt to avoid bias—because it’ll essentially always be possible to deduce what that blocked data was. And it’s not just that this can be done intentionally; inside a machine learning system, it’ll often just happen automatically and invisibly.
Even given every detail of a program, it can be arbitrarily hard to predict what it will
or won’t do
One might think that if one had the complete code for a program, one would readily be able to deduce everything about what the program would do. But it’s a fundamental fact that in general one can’t do this. Given a particular input, one can always just run the program and see what it does. But even if the program is simple, its behavior may be very complicated, and computational irreducibility implies that there won’t be a way to “jump ahead” and immediately find out what the program will do, without explicitly running it.
One consequence of this is that if one wants to know, for example, whether with any input a program can do such-and-such, then there may be no finite way to determine this—because one might have to check an infinite number of possible inputs. As a practical matter, this is why bugs in programs can be so hard to detect. But as a matter of principle, it means that it can ultimately be impossible to completely verify that a program is “correct”, or has some specific property.
Software engineering has in the past often tried to constrain the programs it deals with so as to minimize such effects. But with methods like machine learning, this is basically impossible to do. And the result is that even if it had a complete automated content selection program, one wouldn’t in general be able to verify that, for example, it could never show some particular bad behavior.
For a well-optimized computation, there’s not likely to be a human-understandable narrative about how it works inside
Should we expect to understand how our technological systems work inside? When things like donkeys were routinely part of such systems, people didn’t expect to. But once the systems began to be “completely engineered” with cogs and levers and so on, there developed an assumption that at least in principle one could explain what was going on inside. The same was true with at least simpler software systems. But with things like machine learning systems, it absolutely isn’t.
Yes, one can in principle trace what happens to every bit of data in the program. But can one create a human-understandable narrative about it? It’s a bit like imagining we could trace the firing of every neuron in a person’s brain. We might be able to predict what a person would do in a particular case, but it’s a different thing to get a high-level “psychological narrative” about why they did it.
Inside a machine learning system—say the cats vs. dogs program—one can think of it as extracting all sorts of features, and making all sorts of distinctions. And occasionally one of these features or distinctions might be something we have a word for (“pointedness”, say). But most of the time they’ll be things the machine learning system discovered, and they won’t have any connection to concepts we’re familiar with.
And in fact—as a consequence of computational irreducibility—it’s basically inevitable that with things like the finiteness of human language and human knowledge, in any well-optimized computation we’re not going to be able to give a high-level narrative to explain what it’s doing. And the result of this is that it’s impossible to expect any useful form of general “explainability” for automated content selection systems.
There’s no finite set of principles that can completely define any reasonable, practical system of ethics
Let’s say one’s trying to teach ethics to a computer, or an artificial intelligence. Is there some simple set of principles—like Asimov’s Laws of Robotics—that will capture a viable complete system of ethics? Looking at the complexity of human systems of laws one might suspect that the answer is no. And in fact this is presumably a fundamental result—essentially another consequence of computational irreducibility.
Imagine that we’re trying to define constraints (or “laws”) for an artificial intelligence, in order to ensure that the AI behaves in some particular “globally ethical” way. We set up a few constraints, and we find that many things the AI does follow our ethics. But computational irreducibility essentially guarantees that eventually there’ll always be something unexpected that’s possible. And the only way to deal with that is to add a “patch”—essentially to introduce another constraint for that new case. And the issue is that this will never end: there’ll be no way to give a finite set of constraints that will achieve our global objectives. (There’s a somewhat technical analogy of this in mathematics, in which Gödel’s theorem shows that no finite set of axiomatic constraints can give one only ordinary integers and nothing else.)
So for our purposes here, the main consequence of this is that we can’t expect to have some finite set of computational principles (or, for that matter, laws) that will constrain automated content selection systems to always behave according to some reasonable, global system of ethics—because they’ll always be generating unexpected new cases that we have to define a new principle to handle.
The Path Forward
I’ve described some of the complexities of handling issues with automated content selection systems. But what in practice can be done?
One obvious idea would be just to somehow “look inside” the systems, auditing their internal operation and examining their construction. But for both fundamental and practical reasons, I don’t think this can usefully be done. As I’ve discussed, to achieve the kind of functionality that users have become accustomed to, modern automated content selection systems make use of methods such as machine learning that are not amenable to human-level explainability or systematic predictability.
What about checking whether a system is, for example, biased in some way? Again, this is a fundamentally difficult thing to determine. Given a particular definition of bias, one could look at the internal training data used for the system—but this won’t usually give more information than just studying how the system behaves.
What about seeing if the system has somehow intentionally been made to do this or that? It’s conceivable that the source code could have explicit “if” statements that would reveal intention. But the bulk of the system will tend to consist of trained neural networks and so on—and as in most other complex systems, it’ll typically be impossible to tell what features might have been inserted “on purpose” and what are just accidental or emergent properties.
As a variant of the idea of blocking all personal information, one can imagine blocking just some information—or, say, allowing a third party to broker what information is provided. But if one wants to get the advantages of modern content selection methods, one’s going to have to leave a significant amount of information—and then there’s no point in blocking anything, because it’ll almost certainly be reproducible through the phenomenon of data deducibility.
Here’s another approach: what about just defining rules (in the form of computational contracts) that specify constraints on the results content selection systems can produce? One day, we’re going to have to have such computational contracts to define what we want AIs in general to do. And because of ethical incompleteness—like with human laws—we’re going to have to have an expanding collection of such contracts.
But even though (particularly through my own efforts) we’re beginning to have the kind of computational language necessary to specify a broad range of computational contracts, we realistically have to get much more experience with computational contracts in standard business and other situations before it makes sense to try setting them up for something as complex as global constraints on content selection systems.
So, what can we do? I’ve not been able to see a viable, purely technical solution. But I have formulated two possible suggestions based on mixing technical ideas with what amount to market mechanisms.
The basic principle of both suggestions is to give users a choice about who to trust, and to let the final results they see not necessarily be completely determined by the underlying ACS business.
There’s been debate about whether ACS businesses are operating as “platforms” that more or less blindly deliver content, or whether they’re operating as “publishers” who take responsibility for content they deliver. Part of this debate can be seen as being about what responsibility should be taken for an AI. But my suggestions sidestep this issue, and in different ways tease apart the “platform” and “publisher” roles.
It’s worth saying that the whole content platform infrastructure that’s been built by the large ACS businesses is an impressive and very valuable piece of engineering—managing huge amounts of content, efficiently delivering ads against it, and so on. What’s really at issue is whether the fine details of the ACS systems need to be handled by the same businesses, or whether they can be opened up. (This is relevant only for ACS businesses whose network effects have allowed them to serve a large fraction of a population. Small ACS businesses don’t have the same kind of lock-in.)
Suggestion A: Allow Users to Choose among Final Ranking Providers
As I discussed earlier, the rough (and oversimplified) outline of how a typical ACS system works is that first features are extracted for each content item and each user. Then, based on these features, there’s a final ranking done that determines what will actually be shown to the user, in what order, etc.
What I’m suggesting is that this final ranking doesn’t have to be done by the same entity that sets up the infrastructure and extracts the features. Instead, there could be a single content platform but a variety of “final ranking providers”, who take the features, and then use their own programs to actually deliver a final ranking.
Different final ranking providers might use different methods, and emphasize different kinds of content. But the point is to let users be free to choose among different providers. Some users might prefer (or trust more) some particular provider—that might or might not be associated with some existing brand. Other users might prefer another provider, or choose to see results from multiple providers.
How technically would all this be implemented? The underlying content platform (presumably associated with an existing ACS business) would take on the large-scale information-handling task of deriving extracted features. The content platform would provide sufficient examples of underlying content (and user information) and its extracted features to allow the final ranking provider’s systems to “learn the meaning” of the features.
When the system is running, the content platform would in real time deliver extracted features to the final ranking provider, which would then feed this into whatever system they have developed (which could use whatever automated or human selection methods they choose). This system would generate a ranking of content items, which would then be fed back to the content platform for final display to the user.
To avoid revealing private user information to lots of different providers, the final ranking provider’s system should probably run on the content platform’s infrastructure. The content platform would be responsible for the overall user experience, presumably providing some kind of selector to pick among final ranking providers. The content platform would also be responsible for delivering ads against the selected content.
Presumably the content platform would give a commission to the final ranking provider. If properly set up, competition among final ranking providers could actually increase total revenue to the whole ACS business, by achieving automated content selection that serves users and advertisers better.
Suggestion B: Allow Users to Choose among Constraint Providers
One feature of Suggestion A is that it breaks up ACS businesses into a content platform component, and a final ranking component. (One could still imagine, however, that a quasi-independent part of an ACS business could be one of the competing final ranking providers.) An alternative suggestion is to keep ACS businesses intact, but to put constraints on the results that they generate, for example forcing certain kinds of balance, etc.
Much like final ranking providers, there would be constraint providers who define sets of constraints. For example, a constraint provider could require that there be on average an equal number of items delivered to a user that are classified (say, by a particular machine learning system) as politically left-leaning or politically right-leaning.
Constraint providers would effectively define computational contracts about properties they want results delivered to users to have. Different constraint providers would define different computational contracts. Some might want balance; others might want to promote particular types of content, and so on. But the idea is that users could decide what constraint provider they wish to use.
How would constraint providers interact with ACS businesses? It’s more complicated than for final ranking providers in Suggestion A, because effectively the constraints from constraint providers have to be woven deeply into the basic operation of the ACS system.
One possible approach is to use the machine learning character of ACS systems, and to insert the constraints as part of the “learning objectives” (or, technically, “loss functions”) for the system. Of course, there could be constraints that just can’t be successfully learned (for example, they might call for types of content that simply don’t exist). But there will be a wide range of acceptable constraints, and in effect, for each one, a different ACS system would be built.
All these ACS systems would then be operated by the underlying ACS business, with users selecting which constraint provider—and therefore which overall ACS system—they want to use.
As with Suggestion A, the underlying ACS business would be responsible for delivering advertising, and would pay a commission to the constraint provider.
Although their detailed mechanisms are different, both Suggestions A and B attempt to leverage the exceptional engineering and commercial achievements of the ACS businesses, while diffusing current trust issues about content selection, providing greater freedom for users, and inserting new opportunities for market growth.
The suggestions also help with some other issues. One example is the banning of content providers. At present, with ACS businesses feeling responsible for content on their platforms, there is considerable pressure, not least from within the ACS businesses themselves, to ban content providers that they feel are providing inappropriate content. The suggestions diffuse the responsibility for content, potentially allowing the underlying ACS businesses not to ban anything but explicitly illegal content.
It would then be up to the final ranking providers, or the constraint providers, to choose whether or not to deliver or allow content of a particular character, or from a particular content provider. In any given case, some might deliver or allow it, and some might not, removing the difficult all-or-none nature of the banning that’s currently done by ACS businesses.
One feature of my suggestions is that they allow fragmentation of users into groups with different preferences. At present, all users of a particular ACS business have content that is basically selected in the same way. With my suggestions, users of different persuasions could potentially receive completely different content, selected in different ways.
While fragmentation like this appears to be an almost universal tendency in human society, some might argue that having people routinely be exposed to other people’s points of view is important for the cohesiveness of society. And technically some version of this would not be difficult to achieve. For example, one could take the final ranking or constraint providers, and effectively generate a feature space plot of what they do.
Some would be clustered close together, because they lead to similar results. Others would be far apart in feature space—in effect representing very different points of view. Then if someone wanted to, say, see their typical content 80% of the time, but see different points of view 20% of the time, the system could combine different providers from different parts of feature space with a certain probability.
Of course, in all these matters, the full technical story is much more complex. But I am confident that if they are considered desirable, either of the suggestions I have made can be implemented in practice. (Suggestion A is likely to be somewhat easier to implement than Suggestion B.) The result, I believe, will be richer, more trusted, and even more widely used automated content selection. In effect both my suggestions mix the capabilities of humans and AIs—to help get the best of both of them—and to navigate through the complex practical and fundamental problems with the use of automated content selection.